A Theory of Change is a visual definition of the broader social change an organization is looking to achieve, hand-in-hand with others in its ecosystem, and a map of all of the outcomes and activities necessary to achieve it.
This guide explains what a Theory of Change is, when nonprofits need one, and how to create it step by step. Key take ways from this article:
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A Theory of Change is a visual map that shows the long-term change you’re working toward and the outcomes + activities that make it possible.
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You likely need one if you’re trying to clarify strategy, align stakeholders, communicate impact to funders, or adapt programs based on what’s working.
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A strong Theory of Change makes your assumptions explicit and helps you choose what to measure.
What you’ll find in this guide
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What a Theory of Change is (simple, clear definition)
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The core components (long-term goal, outcomes, activities, assumptions)
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When a nonprofit needs a Theory of Change (common triggers)
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How to create one (step-by-step)
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Frequently asked questions
A Theory of Change is made up of several elements, the first being your long-term goal, which is the broader social change your nonprofit or one of its programs is working to achieve, not necessarily through the work of your organization alone, but alongside others that are in your space or sector-aligned.
Plain-English definition: A Theory of Change explains how your work is expected to lead to a specific long-term result—by mapping the outcomes that must happen along the way.
Why it matters: It helps you make clearer decisions about what to prioritize, what to stop doing, and what to measure.
What does a Theory of Change include?
1) Long-term goal
Your long-term goal is the broad change you want to see in the world—often bigger than what your organization can achieve alone.
2) Outcomes (short-, mid-, and long-term)
Outcomes are the conditions that must be true for the long-term goal to happen. A Theory of Change maps these outcomes backward from the long-term goal.
3) Activities (what you do)
Activities are the key strategies, programs, or actions you believe will contribute to each outcome.
4) Assumptions
Assumptions are the beliefs you’re making about what needs to be true for your pathway to work—plus what’s outside your control.
5) Measures (success indicators)
Once the map is drafted, identify how you’ll know progress is happening—what you’ll track, how often, and over what timeframe.
So for example, a nonprofit dedicated to mentoring high schoolers might have a long-term goal along the lines of: Graduating high school seniors go on to successfully complete post-secondary education.
Leading up to the long-term goal in the Theory of Change are all of the outcomes that are required to meet it, which create your pathway to change.
In sticking with the example above, to ensure graduating high school seniors go on to successfully complete post-secondary education, there are a number of short-term, mid-term and long-term outcomes that would need to be true, such as:
- Increased academic achievement for high schools students
- Student social-emotional well-being
- A strong student support network during high school
- Free or affordable post-secondary educational options
This list is by no means exhaustive, but hopefully you can see that the idea is to think about all of the things that need to happen in order for the long-term goal to be achieved. The Theory of Change process asks that you start with the broadest, highest level change you’re looking to impact (the long-term goal) and map your pathway backwards by asking, immediately before the long-term goal, what outcomes need to be true? And if those outcomes are true, what outcomes come right before that? And so on…
Once the long-term goal is established and outcome pathways are mapped, the activities associated with each outcome are also mapped. So for example:
- Increased academic achievement for high schools students → 1:1 support/mentorship
- Student social-emotional well-being → focus on the whole-child approaches
- A strong student support network during high school → emphasis on family & educator engagement in student success (educator conference, family nights, partnerships with athletics)
- Free or affordable post-secondary educational options → scholarships, corporate training programs
Finally, the Theory of Change is underpinned by a set of assumptions. These assumptions allow groups to develop a more focused final product. So, high school seniors successfully completing post-secondary education in our sample Theory might come along with the assumption that there are many factors outside of mentorship that support a student’s success, not all of which can be articulated in one diagram.
It’s important to note that while your Theory of Change is in service of your vision and mission, it should be realistic and achievable. When your Theory of Change is complete, you should establish success indicators, or how you will measure progress toward the path put forward and over what timeframe.
How to create a Theory of Change (step-by-step)
Step 1: Define the long-term goal
Write a clear statement of the future you’re working toward. Keep it ambitious, but realistic.
Step 2: Name the population and context
Who is experiencing the change and in what environment or system?
Step 3: Work backward to identify outcomes
Ask: “What must be true immediately before the long-term goal is possible?” Repeat until you get to near-term outcomes.
Step 4: Group outcomes into a pathway
Cluster outcomes into themes (e.g., capabilities, access, relationships, policies, resources) so the map stays readable.
Step 5: List activities that support each outcome
Identify the few activities that matter most—don’t try to include everything.
Step 6: Make assumptions explicit
Write the key assumptions behind the pathway (and note what is outside your control).
Step 7: Stress-test for logic and feasibility
Ask: Are there missing outcomes? Are outcomes in the right order? Are activities truly linked to outcomes?
Step 8: Draft the visual
Turn the pathway into a diagram. Aim for clarity, not perfection.
Step 9: Identify success indicators
Choose what you’ll measure for the most important outcomes (and how often).
Step 10: Review, learn, and update
A Theory of Change is a living tool. Revisit it as you learn what’s working.
When does your nonprofit need a Theory of Change?
Common signals you need a Theory of Change now
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You’re launching a new strategy, program model, or expansion
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You’re struggling to explain your impact clearly to funders or partners
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Different stakeholders disagree on what “success” looks like
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You need to prioritize (or sunset) programs and want a decision tool
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You’re building an evaluation or learning agenda and need a roadmap
While many nonprofits develop a Theory of Change simply to understand their role in the broader ecosystem, there are a few instances where it can become a valuable decision-making tool.
The first is to facilitate discussion about where your nonprofit should focus. Your final map will state your long-term goal, all of the outcomes that lead to that goal and the activities necessary to achieve each outcome. This comprehensive view will allow you to see how your current programs and services support the Theory of Change and where there are opportunities to grow or change to better support the future you hope to create.
The second instance where a Theory of Change is helpful is to build consensus or align multiple stakeholders or nonprofits around a central goal and the pathway necessary to achieve it.
Does your organization have a Theory of Change? If so, I’d love to see it.
Theory of Change FAQ
What’s the difference between a Theory of Change and a logic model?
A Theory of Change maps the outcomes needed to achieve a long-term goal. A logic model is typically more operational, showing inputs, activities, outputs, and outcomes for a program.
How detailed should a Theory of Change be?
Detailed enough to guide decisions and measurement, but simple enough that stakeholders can understand it quickly.
Is a Theory of Change required by funders?
Some funders ask for one explicitly; more commonly, they want the clarity it creates and how your work leads to results.
Who should be involved in creating it?
Usually a mix of staff, leadership/board, and community members or partners who have lived experience with the issue.
Related Resources:
Creating a Theory of Change: Everything Your Nonprofit Needs to Know
What’s the Difference Between a Logic Model and Theory of Change?
Creating a Logic Model: Everything Your Nonprofit Needs to Know
